AGP Executive Report

Middle East Energy Shock: The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth outlook to 2.5%, warning the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption are keeping energy prices high and raising inflation risks. Oil & Gas Infrastructure: Algeria’s Sonatrach broke ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment to move Nigerian gas via Niger to Algeria, targeting 20–30 bcm/year. Power & Finance: South Africa’s Eskom got a Fitch rating upgrade, improving access to funding as it pushes its renewables and turnaround plans. Gas Project Deal: Saipem won about €900m for the Uthmaniyah gas compression plant in Saudi Arabia, extending field life. Africa Investment Push: Ghana courted Canadian investors for upstream oil and gas opportunities, while Mahama urged the EU to trade and invest in Ghana’s minerals, renewables and manufacturing. Regional Diplomacy: Namibia and South Africa reaffirmed cooperation across sectors including energy, backed by 150+ agreements. Climate Risk: Zimbabwe’s early warning on likely El Niño highlights growing threats to water, farming and power generation.

Energy Shock Watch: A new analysis says the US-Iran conflict is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial shock that could keep global systems disrupted through 2027, with Brent projected around $85–100 in a baseline. Biofuels & Food Risk: As oil nears $100, biofuel demand is expected to jump sharply, potentially tightening the link between fuel and food prices while fertilizer supply strains worsen. Gas Pipeline Push: Algeria’s SONATRACH has broken ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline section, reviving an export corridor to Europe via Nigeria and Niger. South Africa Transition Fallout: A report warns closed coal mines across Mpumalanga lack cleanup funds, leaving communities exposed to polluted land and water for decades. Oil & Environment Accountability: Internal Shell emails allege the company kept a Niger Delta pipeline running despite technical concerns, with residents linking spills to mangrove damage. Climate Extremes: Scientists warn record heat is intensifying, and El Niño risk is rising, increasing drought, heavy rainfall and heatwave threats.

Oil & Gas Output: Nigeria pumped about 1.53 million barrels per day in May, beating its OPEC quota by 42,000 bpd, underscoring stronger upstream momentum. Refining & Finance: Dangote Petroleum Refinery is seeking roughly $1bn via a private placement, with Standard Bank backing and proceeds aimed at expansion and logistics/storage upgrades. Gas Infrastructure: Algeria’s SONATRACH has broken ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment, reviving the corridor to move Nigerian gas through Niger to Algeria and onward to Mediterranean routes. Power & Renewables: Cameroon’s SCDP and PAK are partnering to advance the Kribi hydrocarbons terminal, while South Africa continues grid and renewables push via new storage and renewables initiatives. Energy Transition Pressure: The World Bank warns Middle East conflict and energy shocks are dragging global growth to 2.5% in 2026, with knock-on effects for African energy affordability and investment. Energy Security & Trade: Egypt is pitching reforms to attract investment into manufacturing, renewables and fintech as it positions itself as an energy and technology hub. Regional Development Funding: Africa’s development faces a massive financing gap, with electricity access and clean energy among the stressed SDG areas.

Middle East Energy Shock: The World Bank warns global growth will slow to the weakest pace since Covid-19 as the Strait of Hormuz closure and high oil prices push Brent to about $94/bbl in 2026, with fertilizer and food costs rising. Gas Infrastructure Push: Algeria’s SONATRACH breaks ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment to move Nigerian gas via Niger into Algeria and onward to Europe, targeting 20–30 bcm/year. Oil Market Watch: Nigeria says May crude output hit 102% of its OPEC quota at 1.53m bpd (plus condensate to 1.70m bpd), while six fuel cargoes worth about N279bn are reported arriving for Dangote’s market. Power & Renewables: Skyworth Solar signals overseas expansion with integrated services, while GCL SI showcases scenario-based PV solutions at SNEC 2026. Energy Transition Minerals: WWF Zimbabwe and partners launch a project to promote responsible mining and energy-transition mineral value chains in Zimbabwe. Fuel Security Angle (SA): A South Africa-focused analysis argues diesel price shocks ripple through logistics, mining and generators—hurting the economy beyond petrol pump impacts.

Renewables Finance Surge: Standard Bank says renewable power project financing in Africa grew faster than non-renewables in 2025, with renewables increasingly seen as capacity-critical for jobs and resilient growth. Grid & Tariff Policy Push: South Africa’s electricity minister Ramokgopa plans to seek Cabinet approval to extend concessional tariffs to more electricity-intensive industries, citing Eskom surplus capacity and deindustrialisation risks. Gas Export Infrastructure: Algeria’s SONATRACH breaks ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment to move Nigerian gas toward European markets, targeting 20–30 bcm/year. Middle East Shock to Africa’s Economy: The World Bank cut global growth to 2.5% and warns of 1.3% if energy disruptions worsen, with fuel and fertiliser import stress hitting vulnerable regions. Biofuels vs Food Pressure: Rising oil prices near $100 a barrel are expected to lift biofuel demand sharply, raising concerns about fertilizer constraints and food crisis spillovers. Energy Transition Tech Signals: Reports highlight faster scaling of grid-forming renewables and growing demand for storage and drone power solutions, pointing to more electrification and automation across sectors.

Refining & Finance: Standard Bank has backed Aliko Dangote’s $50bn refinery IPO, positioning itself as lead adviser for the September listing and future expansion. Energy Security: South Africa’s energy ministry says it wants strategic petroleum reserves lifted to 60 days of net imports, up from current levels that effectively leave the country exposed. Geopolitics & Markets: The South African Reserve Bank warns the Middle East conflict has made the financial system more vulnerable via weaker growth, higher inflation and tighter conditions as non-residents sell off assets. Oil Supply Routes: Algeria’s SONATRACH has started work on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline segment, aiming to move Nigerian gas through Niger into Algeria and onward to Europe. Food vs Fuel: Rising oil prices and Strait of Hormuz disruption are expected to boost biofuel demand sharply, raising fresh food-crisis concerns as fertilizer constraints bite. Industrial Impact: A study finds mining drives deforestation across Africa at extreme rates, with cobalt and copper among the biggest contributors.

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline Revival: Algeria’s SONATRACH has broken ground on its section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, aiming to move Nigerian gas through Niger into Algeria and onward to Mediterranean export routes, with the full line estimated at 4,128 km and 20–30 bcm/year. South Africa Power Transition: Eskom is pushing renewables via a dedicated green energy unit and is also advancing gas-to-power work tied to the Richards Bay project, as the grid and fuel security debate heats up. Nigeria Fuel Costs: Nigeria’s petrol depot prices are rising as crude climbs on renewed US-Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions, adding pressure to transport and living costs. Ghana Electrification Pilot: eThekwini is opening applications for a smart solar pilot connecting 280 homes to cheaper power with Wi‑Fi-enabled energy management. Clean Energy & Storage: WLF Energy and Farasis Energy sign an alliance to scale energy storage solutions, while solar manufacturing and module supply deals keep rolling across the region. Illicit Finance Fight: Tax Justice Network Africa calls for stronger African-led action against illicit financial flows, warning of major annual losses.

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline: Algeria’s SONATRACH has broken ground on its section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, aiming to move Nigerian gas via Niger to Algeria and onward to Mediterranean export routes, with the full line targeting 20–30 bcm a year. Renewables Push: Morocco says it will invest about $16bn over five years to add 16GW of solar and wind, pushing renewables above 45% of its energy mix. Power & Regulation: South Africa’s Tshwane won a court fight against Eskom and Nersa over electricity distribution for Mooikloof Mega City, potentially unlocking R125m/month in metro revenue. Corporate Energy Transition: Tiger Brands switched on solar at seven South African factories under its decarbonisation drive. Ebola Disruption: Kenya saw a deadly protest tied to an Ebola quarantine plan, while Congo’s outbreak climbed past 100 deaths in 550 cases, underscoring health and security strain across the region. Oil Market Risk: Renewed US-Iran tensions are again raising fears for Strait of Hormuz shipping and global oil flows.

Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline Revival: Algeria’s SONATRACH has broken ground on its segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, linking Nigeria’s gas through Niger to Algeria’s Hassi R’Mel and onward to Mediterranean export routes into Europe, with the full line targeting 20–30 bcm/year. South Africa Power Transition: Eskom launched “Eskom Green,” a new renewable energy unit aimed at accelerating utility-scale projects, targeting 6GW of clean power by 2030 and an initial 2GW renewables pipeline with private partners. Renewables Finance Push: Zambia is using an AfDB-backed sovereign bond buyback to fund up to $275m over 15 years for grid resilience and distribution upgrades, tying debt management to power-system investment. Clean Energy Supply Chain: GeT Metal Group says it has removed virgin fossil fuels from aluminium melting by converting about 150,000 end-of-life tyres a year into industrial fuel, cutting landfill waste and replacing heavy fuel oil use. Oil & Gas Leadership Change: Seplat Energy appointed Effiong Okon as CEO effective Aug 1, 2026, as it drives its 2030 growth roadmap across gas and energy transition initiatives.

Trans-Saharan Gas Push: Algeria has started construction on a new section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, with welding operations launched for a 1,210km stretch linking the Niger border to Aoulef and onward to Hassi R’Mel, aiming to move 20–30 bcm/year of Nigerian gas toward Mediterranean export routes. South Africa Gas Cliff: Nersa is weighing caps on gas price hikes after warning of an imminent “gas cliff” as Mozambique supply to key industrial users runs down, with Sasol’s methane-rich gas bridge seen as a short-term fix that raises affordability and competition concerns. Mozambique LNG Momentum: A Standard Bank-backed study says Rovuma LNG could catalyse a wider Southern Africa gas industry, including domestic and regional gas use, as South Africa looks to LNG imports to support gas-to-power. South Africa LNG Infrastructure: At Ngqura, South Africa’s LNG regasification plans move forward under a TNPA–Ukwanda LNG terminal operator deal, targeting large-scale import capacity to back gas-to-power in the Coega SEZ. Nigeria Upstream Rebound: Nigeria’s active rig count jumped 40.9% month-on-month in Q1 2026, signalling renewed drilling activity after a February slowdown. Nigeria Gas & Power Mapping: Nigeria’s Gas & Power Infrastructure Map is set to be unveiled at NOG Energy Week, promising consolidated intelligence across pipelines, LNG, power assets and the gas-to-power value chain. Renewables/Power Signals: Eskom and Zululand Energy Terminal have signed heads of agreement to advance a 3GW Richards Bay gas-to-power project, keeping the gas-to-power debate central as grid constraints persist.

Offshore Oil & Upstream Deals: The Gambia signed a landmark offshore exploration agreement with Eni for Block A1, with the state set to take a 10% carried interest via GNPC and options for further upside, alongside training and local-content commitments. Gas Infrastructure: Algeria’s SONATRACH broke ground on its section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, reviving a 4,128-km export corridor aimed at moving 20–30 bcm/year from Nigeria through Niger to Algeria and onward to Europe. Power & Grid Stress: South Africa’s Minerals Council says the system is more stable operationally (no load shedding recorded; EAF up to ~66% in May) but still structurally strained, with electricity generation down year-on-year and diesel OCGTs used to bridge tight demand. Energy vs Environment: South Africa’s offshore 3D seismic survey approvals are being challenged in court by fisheries and civil society groups, arguing key marine risks weren’t properly assessed. Hydropower + AI Data Centers: Lesotho is in talks for a 1.2GW Kobong hydropower project paired with an AI data centre, potentially transforming a country that currently relies heavily on imports. Aviation Fuel Shock: IATA projects global airline profits could halve in 2026 to $23bn as Middle East conflict and jet fuel costs squeeze margins. Green Hydrogen Push: South Africa launched a power-to-x project development standard to make green hydrogen and PtX deals more investment-ready, aiming to unlock industrialisation. Cyber & Data Centers: Equinix’s Cape Town data centre plan faces objections over water, power and environmental disclosure concerns. Market Finance: Fitch upgraded South Africa’s sovereign rating for the first time in nearly 21 years, boosting the rand briefly before Middle East tensions reintroduced currency volatility.

Turkana oil momentum: Kenya’s Lokichar South Lokichar revised field plan and a new investor model have revived the project, with officials saying “first oil” could unlock major tax and FX gains—but warning that the real test is disciplined execution and community expectations. South Africa grid reform pressure: President Ramaphosa has extended the deadline for Eskom’s transmission unbundling plan, as ratings agencies flag execution risk that could hit the country’s power sector and credit outlook. Renewables programme debate: South Africa’s REIPPPP is credited with building a renewables industry and investment, but experts say its future role is being questioned as the bottleneck shifts from generation to grid infrastructure. Energy security through resilience: A new focus on fuel resilience highlights South Africa’s loss of refining capacity and the growing fragility of ports, terminals and logistics nodes. Nigeria downstream boost: Dangote’s 650,000 bpd refinery ramp-up is reshaping Nigeria’s fuel market, cutting import dependence and improving balance of payments. Climate and food pressure: Gulf of Guinea marine heatwaves are damaging fish stocks, adding to Ghana’s food security strain. Electric mobility pilot: Ghana’s DACF and Wahu Mobility are rolling out electric motorcycles to districts to cut fuel costs and improve service delivery. Dealmaking for energy finance: Heirs Energies’ $750m financing win underscores growing appetite for African-led oil and gas investment.

Data Centres’ Energy Strain: A UN University report warns data centres’ electricity use, water demand and pollution could double in four years as AI ramps up, with 2030 power use projected near 3% of global demand. Aviation Fuel Shock: IATA says 2026 airline profits could be cut in half as Middle East conflict lifts jet fuel costs; SAF still covers under 1% of jet fuel, leaving airlines stuck with expensive conventional supply. Nigeria Aviation Relief: Dangote Refinery cut Jet A1 by ₦100/litre (to ₦1,550), offering short-term cost relief for Nigerian carriers. South Africa Gas-to-Power: Eskom signed heads of agreement for an LNG import facility at Richards Bay, aiming to feed its planned gas-fired power station amid slow domestic supply progress. Renewables Financing Push: IRENA and Etihad Credit Insurance expanded a risk-mitigation partnership to help renewable projects reach financing and construction. Kenya EV Milestone: A Kenyan-built electric vehicle became the first EV to finish the Rhino Charge off-road race, a boost for local e-mobility credibility. Oil Market Pressure: OPEC+ is set to meet as Hormuz disruption keeps crude tight, with analysts skeptical that quota hikes will tame prices.

Energy Transition & Policy: Ethiopia signals cleaner mobility momentum after banning traditional internal-combustion-engine vehicle imports, with investors urged to join the next phase of the transition. Renewables & Grid Links: Ethiopia’s EEP says it is pushing regional power connectivity, exporting under 10% of output while working on links to Tanzania and supplying Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya. Gas-to-Power Momentum (South Africa): Eskom advances the Richards Bay gas-to-power push, including a gas deal for the stalled project and a new agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal for a 3GW initiative. Oil & Shipping Security: Somali piracy appears to be resurging, with hijacked tankers and a merchant vessel held off Puntland, raising pressure on maritime risk management. Climate Finance Push: Africa’s negotiators at Bonn call for a shift from climate promises to delivery, stressing implementation and climate finance obligations. Investment & Power Partnerships: Nigeria’s power ministry leadership meets China’s ambassador to deepen cooperation on electricity and infrastructure. Renewables Storage Trend: A broader energy-storage boom is drawing capital as batteries become key to balancing solar and wind growth across markets. Macroeconomic Pressure: The IMF steps up support for Ethiopia, The Gambia and Burkina Faso amid Middle East-driven energy and food shocks.

Regional Power Trade: Ethiopia says it’s pushing deeper East African energy connectivity, with renewables-led generation and power exports to Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya, while studies aim to extend supply to Tanzania. Grid & Gas-to-Power Momentum: South Africa advances the Richards Bay gas-to-power push, with Eskom moving to secure LNG supply for the planned 3,000MW project. Gas Infrastructure for Europe: Algeria has started work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, linking Nigeria and Niger to Algeria’s export system with up to 30 bcm/year targeted for European markets. Renewables Scale-Up: Liberia launched its first grid-connected solar plant, cutting power costs from 28¢ to 3¢. Finance & Risk Appetite: Fitch upgraded South Africa’s sovereign ratings for the first time in nearly 21 years, citing improved fiscal consolidation. Energy Demand Pressure from Tech: A UN study warns AI could sharply raise water and energy needs via data centers. E-mobility Push: Electric motorcycle investment in Africa is accelerating, with new funding rounds backing fleet growth. Policy Watch: Ghana’s automotive ambitions face a setback as a 2026 VAT exemption removal on locally assembled vehicles threatens component supply plans.

Eskom LNG push: South Africa’s Eskom signed a Heads of Agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal to secure LNG import, storage and regasification for its stalled 3,000MW Richards Bay gas-to-power plan, aiming to bridge a looming gas supply squeeze as Mozambique output is expected to fall sharply through 2028. Dangote refinery momentum: Dangote’s refinery hit 700,000 bpd in a performance test, lifting exports of petrol, diesel and jet fuel and reshaping Africa’s fuel trade routes as the company targets 1.4 million bpd expansion. Solar supply boost: Tongwei solar PV panels entered South Africa via preferred distribution deals with SOLARWORLD Africa and IBC Solar, supporting commercial, industrial and utility-scale projects. Finance for infrastructure: Africa Finance Corporation raised a record $2bn syndicated loan to scale integrated infrastructure and industrial platforms across Africa. Food security shock: The UN warned Middle East war-driven oil price spikes and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are already translating into higher global hunger risk. Climate + youth focus: World Environment Day messaging stressed investing in youth-led, practical climate action and agroforestry. Morocco recovery funding: The EIB mobilised €500m for quake-hit areas in Morocco, with reconstruction aligned to higher seismic-resilience and energy-efficiency standards.