AGP Executive Report

Fuel & Refining Politics: Nigeria’s NNPCL has raised petrol prices in Abuja to ₦1,270/litre, even as Dangote Refinery expands free delivery to 10 destinations at about ₦1,185/litre, keeping pressure on motorists. Regional Energy Security: South Africa faces fresh diplomatic and economic strain after the US warned of secondary sanctions on countries doing business with Iran, raising risks for local firms tied to the US financial system. Power & Grid Buildout: South Africa’s grid review is underway as Ramaphosa pushes a R264bn infrastructure pipeline, while ACTOM EPC is set to deliver a 1,000 MVA transmission substation for the Overberg wind project. Oil Export Shift: The US EIA says Nigeria’s seaborne refined product exports have surged to 561,000 bpd in Q2 2026, driven by Dangote’s ramp-up. Upstream Moves: D3 Energy has started a high-resolution 2D seismic survey at its Nooitgedacht helium project in South Africa’s Free State. Fintech Meets Energy Demand: MTN is seeking banking licences and building an AI data-centre platform via a new Africa Data Hub holding company, betting lending and digital infrastructure will drive growth. Critical Minerals & Value Addition: Ghana is pushing to curb gold smuggling via the GoldBod/Bank of Ghana framework, while Nigeria’s trade voices urge more value-added exports to retain wealth.

Grid Reliability Watch: Ghana has launched an independent review of its electricity grid and infrastructure after recent system disturbances, aiming to assess condition and performance and improve reliability for consumers and industry. Fuel Subsidy Politics: Nigeria’s Atiku camp moved to clarify that any fuel support would be targeted, capped and independently audited, tied to domestic refining and crude barrels, not a return to the old opaque import subsidy. LPG Access Push: Ghana’s Xpress Gas teamed up with Polygon Energy Technology to expand LPG cylinder recirculation in line with the NPA’s push to raise LPG access to 50% by 2030. EV Charging Rules: Ghana also called for tighter standardisation and regulation of EV charging to avoid uncoordinated fast-charging stressing the power grid. Climate Early Warning: Namibia urged SADC to boost meteorological investment and early-warning systems as climate risks rise across energy, water and disaster management. East Africa Oil Tensions: A new wave of East Africa refinery plans is reopening regional disputes over where major energy infrastructure should sit. Legal Turning Point: South Africa’s Constitutional Court permanently halted Shell’s Wild Coast exploration, strengthening the case for a just transition toward renewables and green jobs. Power Pipeline: South Africa’s Ramaphosa unveiled a R264bn infrastructure pipeline with 170 projects heading to procurement, including energy-related works.

Solar finance & last-mile power: South Africa-based solar and digital devices asset financier Yellow raised an undisclosed Series C to expand pay-as-you-go solar home systems and smartphone financing across Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, Rwanda, Madagascar, DRC and Nigeria, targeting 10m customers by 2030. Off-grid energy access: Namibia’s renewable energy industry group REIAoN appointed Paulus Mulunga as chair, aiming to shift from advocacy to coordinated action via task forces on solar quality, net metering, IPPs, electric mobility and green hydrogen. Regional power & infrastructure: AFDB approved US$255m for Zambia’s participation in the Lobito Economic Corridor, linking Angola’s Lobito port with the DRC and Zambia’s Copperbelt while integrating transport, trade facilitation, agriculture, energy and institutions. Energy transition & grid reality: A South Africa piece flags Eskom’s push to sell surplus electricity to hyperscale data centres for AI/cloud growth, underscoring that the bottleneck is power, connectivity and engineering—not just software. Oil & gas policy pressure: Nigeria’s fuel subsidy debate heats up as Atiku’s camp defends a targeted, refinery-linked affordability plan while experts warn against a blanket subsidy return without transparency and accountability. Shipping risk: Reports say pirates hijacked two vessels off Yemen and Somalia, raising renewed concerns for oil products and regional shipping security.

Uranium Deal in Niger: Atomic Eagle says it has regained 60% of the Madaouela uranium project after Niger granted a new exploitation permit, ending an arbitration dispute; the state takes 40% (15% free-carried, 25% contributing) and the firm targets JORC compliance by Q4 2026. Oil Supply Diversification: Sinopec plans to source more crude from Brazil and Africa to reduce Middle East disruption risk, while keeping ties with “stable” Gulf producers; it also says it has enough crude for 20 days of processing. Nigeria Refining Impact: US EIA reports Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports have jumped seven-fold since 2023, averaging 561,000 bpd in 2Q26, driven by the Dangote refinery’s ramp-up. Power & Grid Pressure: A new analysis argues Africa’s data-centre boom is ultimately constrained by electricity grids, not just investor appetite. Clean Energy Push: Olam Agri switched on rooftop solar at its Ghana wheat hub, adding 2.2 million kWh/year and cutting emissions as renewables rise in its operations. Policy Debate: South Africa’s Green Connection urges Parliament to withdraw a proposed Gas Bill, warning it could lock in fossil-fuel reliance and raise consumer costs. Youth & Energy Jobs: Ethiopia calls at BRICS youth talks for dedicated funding for youth enterprises plus more investment in digital and green technologies.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: Africa Minerals Strategy Group (AMSG) will push a bigger value-add agenda at a Sept. 21 high-level roundtable in New York, chaired by President Bola Tinubu, as the continent seeks more control over lithium, copper, cobalt and other strategic inputs. Nigeria Fuel Subsidy Fight: In the run-up to Nigeria’s 2027 vote, Atiku Abubakar and supporters argue fuel subsidy is still effectively being paid under “energy security” spending, while critics warn a return would revive corruption and diversion. Power System Cost Control: Eskom says it cut diesel spending sharply to about R992m year-to-date by using open-cycle gas turbines less, aiming to limit exposure to fuel price shocks. Ghana Nuclear Push: Ghana’s industry body urges the nuclear programme be treated as a strategic national project to move from studies to construction readiness. Renewables for Livelihoods: Ethiopia expands solar-powered irrigation to cut diesel costs and protect farmers from drought and erratic weather. Water Conflict Risk: A new look at transboundary waters flags rising climate-driven tensions over shared rivers and aquifers.

Critical Minerals Push: A new Al-Attiyah Foundation paper says Gulf states are ramping up investment in copper, lithium, cobalt and rare earths, with Africa emerging as a top destination as demand rises and supply chains tighten. Ethiopia’s Water & Dams: Ethiopia wrapped up a national dialogue in Addis Ababa while reiterating its right to develop the Abay (Nile) River, pairing diplomacy and security with a more assertive regional posture. Tanzania Power Boost: Tanzania inaugurated the Julius Nyerere hydropower project (2,115MW), built by an Egyptian consortium, aiming to expand generation and support regional business and exports. Nigeria Fuel Subsidy Fight: Atiku’s camp renewed claims that Tinubu didn’t abolish fuel subsidy but changed beneficiaries, as petrol depot prices in Nigeria climbed amid crude near $95 and Hormuz supply worries. Clean Energy Investment Drive (Nigeria): REEEA-Alliance adopted a 12-point action plan to move Nigeria’s clean-energy sector from policy to bankable projects, citing a major grid supply gap and reliance on diesel/petrol generators. Regional Power Ambition (Ghana): Ghana says it wants to start supplying electricity to Nigeria and position itself as a West African power hub. Host Community Focus (Oil & Gas): Ibeno traditional rulers urged Seplat Energy’s new leadership to prioritize host community relations after the company’s Exxon-Mobil asset acquisition.

Hydropower & grid security: Eswatini’s EEC launched a tender for an additional 10MW unit at Maguga Hydropower Station to close a financing gap that stalled expansion. Nuclear workforce push: Ghana’s nuclear regulator GAEC urged Africa to invest in its nuclear workforce ahead of US-Africa Nuclear Energy Summit, stressing capability-building before infrastructure. Regional power trade: Cameroon and Chad advanced the Chad-Cameroon Power Interconnector with new tenders for 225kV lines and substations, aiming to move 100MW from Nachtigal dam to Chad. Energy policy signals: Eswatini also flagged nuclear as a future option, but only after building national nuclear capability; meanwhile, Nigeria’s Petroleum Commission marked 15 years of regulatory work in Ghana. Oil & gas training: Nigeria pledged stronger support for OGTAN to build a world-class oil and gas workforce. Food-energy logistics lens: Zimbabwe and South Africa urged treating the North-South Rail Corridor as an economic security tool amid chokepoint risks affecting fuel and food flows.

Hydropower Push: Tanzania officially inaugurated the 2,115MW Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan saying it will end chronic power shortages and leave surplus capacity for exports and industry; the $2.9bn project was built by an Egyptian consortium and has faced criticism over environmental impacts. Grid Reform Watch: South Africa moved to dismantle Eskom’s 103-year electricity monopoly, gazetting plans for a more competitive generation market and clearer, more predictable pricing, including separating transmission and market operations. Fuel Subsidy Politics: Nigeria’s Atiku Abubakar faced fresh backlash over pledging to restore fuel subsidy, with Shehu Sani calling it a vote-winning “Trojan horse” after earlier pro-removal positions. Energy, Security & Shipping: Reports highlight renewed piracy risk in the Horn of Africa after hijackings of oil products and cargo vessels, underscoring how maritime disruption can hit energy supply chains. Trade & Investment: The UAE-Russia Trade in Services and Investment Agreement entered into force, aiming to expand services market access and investor protections—another signal of shifting non-oil economic ties.

Namibia Gas & Value-Add: Namibia’s government is pushing for gas to build jobs, skills, infrastructure and local firms—not just export revenue—while deciding where the fuel goes and who benefits. Green Hydrogen Push: Namibia also fired up Africa’s first integrated green hydrogen hub at Walvis Bay, pairing solar, electrolysis and battery storage for industrial and transport use. South Africa Power Pricing: South Africa’s draft electricity pricing policy is out for comment, but industry warns the real test is enforceable implementation. Coal & Court Pressure: Civil society is escalating pressure on South Africa’s coal expansion as the state seeks to overturn a court setback over new coal capacity. Oil & Gas Politics (Nigeria): The petrol subsidy fight heats up ahead of 2027, with Atiku pushing targeted support while Tinubu’s camp says it’s economically wrong. East Africa Refinery Stakes: Dangote is offering East African countries a 30% equity stake in its planned refinery, with Kenya, Ethiopia and Rwanda showing interest. Data Centres Under Scrutiny: South Africa’s AI data-centre boom faces human-rights and sustainability concerns over water, power and land strain. Nuclear Fuel Race: A US watchdog says China (and Russia) have HALEU fuel capacity at scale, highlighting a supply vulnerability for advanced reactors. Shipping Risk & Routes: With Suez disrupted by Gulf turmoil, some firms eye the Arctic Northern Sea Route—but experts doubt it will replace mainstream shipping.

Fuel & power policy fight: Nigeria’s fuel subsidy removal debate keeps heating up as Atiku Abubakar attacks Tinubu’s handling, arguing the policy hit households hard while shifting support toward production-linked interventions. Retail energy deal: Shell’s South Africa petrol station network sale moves forward after Adnoc Distribution agreed to buy a minority stake in Shell downstream South Africa with Reatile, valuing the business at about $1bn and targeting a 2027 close. Grid strain & renewables finance: Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency warns demand could surge beyond capacity as AI and electrification expand, while it signs a financing pact for renewable developers—though it says the $23bn gap remains huge. LNG shipping economics: Flex LNG reports a jump in Q2 earnings as Middle East disruptions boost charter rates, keeping full-year guidance intact. Industrial operations under energy stress: A South Africa-focused piece says plants are moving away from long shutdowns toward faster, risk-based maintenance as energy security and uptime become non-negotiable. Regional energy cooperation: South Africa and Zimbabwe use their bi-national commission to push deeper trade and investment, with infrastructure and jobs central to the agenda. Climate risk for energy & trade: El Niño’s return threatens major disruptions—Panama Canal operators are already bracing, and Europe’s Mediterranean heat is expected to flip into heavy autumn rain and storms. Maritime security: Somali pirates hijack two ships carrying 22 Indians, with EU anti-piracy forces investigating.

Ivory Coast Gas Deal: Panoro Energy agreed to buy DNO’s indirect 9.09% stake in four producing offshore gas fields in Block CI-27 for $80m, boosting its West Africa gas footprint as the country’s domestic supply grows. South Africa Renewables Push: Nersa says registered renewable projects in South Africa have crossed R400bn in investment, with 124 new facilities (804MW) added in the latest period—though grid buildout remains the bottleneck. Electricity Pricing Reform: South Africa’s electricity minister Ramokgopa is pressing ahead with tariff reforms aimed at easing the burden on households and keeping mining and industry viable. Energy Security & Fraud Risks: Eskom’s diesel accounting probe alleges fuel was paid for but not delivered, while cybercriminals are also impersonating brands and agencies to steal bank access via smartphones. Oil Price Watch: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery raised petrol gantry prices by N20/litre as Brent pushed above $93/bbl amid renewed Iran-related supply fears. Regional Energy Diplomacy: The US-Africa Energy & Investment Forum at AEW 2026 (Oct 12–16, Cape Town) will focus on financing, technology transfer and unlocking capital for African energy projects.

Nile Water Sovereignty: Ethiopia’s water minister says the country “does not need permission” to develop Abay resources and rejects any joint management of the GERD, arguing basin cooperation should guide future dam building. Nigeria Fuel Subsidy Politics: Atiku Abubakar unveiled a production-based fuel subsidy model that caps spending, tracks subsidised crude “from allocation to point of sale,” and uses independent audits—aimed at shifting support from imports to domestic refining. Oil Price Signals: Nigeria’s depots adjusted PMS rates, with Dangote raising its gantry price to ₦1,185/litre, likely feeding into pump-price changes. West Africa Project Finance: Absa helped arrange a EUR 456m credit facility for Genser Energy’s next phase across Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, supporting working capital and balance-sheet strength. Skills for Oil & Gas: Nigeria’s OGTAN urged a faster overhaul of training and retention to close workforce gaps as the sector targets future production and investment. Maritime Security: A tanker off Yemen was boarded by six armed people and diverted toward Somalia, underscoring renewed piracy risk in the Gulf of Aden.

South Africa Power Market: Eskom is losing tens of billions of rand a year as rooftop solar booms, with off-grid systems now taking about 20% of installed capacity and squeezing utility revenue. Tariff Relief: Nersa approved a two-year tariff reprieve for Manganese Metal Company, aiming to protect jobs and industrial competitiveness while easing Eskom’s baseload pressure. Grid Rules: South Africa’s move toward an independent transmission system operator is under scrutiny, with warnings that market design—not just ownership—will decide whether the grid stays stable. Nigeria Fuel Logistics: Truck queues returned to Dangote Refinery as marketers chase cheaper diesel, widening depot price gaps in Lagos. Nigeria Competition Watch: FCCPC opened an investigation into cement pricing after complaints and sharp cost increases, probing whether prices reflect costs or anti-competitive conduct. Ghana Nuclear Push: Ghana says it is ready to advance nuclear power beyond planning, stressing financing, regulation, and—crucially—human capacity. Gabon LNG Conversion: Lloyd’s Register will oversee conversion of a steam turbine LNG vessel into an FSU for Perenco’s Cap Lopez project, adding momentum to floating gas in West Africa. Access & Decentralised Power: Africa Energy Indaba 2027 will spotlight mini-grids and decentralised supply as a fast route to electrification.

Data Centres & Power Demand: Dell’Oro Group forecasts global data-centre physical infrastructure revenue to hit $120bn by 2030, driven by AI workloads and nearly 200GW of new capacity additions—while the main bottlenecks shift to delivery: equipment lead times, construction labour, grid interconnection and local approvals. Clean Energy Access: Nigeria’s REEEA-A is pushing for stronger partnerships and coordinated action to accelerate affordable clean energy rollout, urging practical implementation over policy talk and calling for better risk-handling finance. Electricity Reform Watch: South Africa’s Ramokgopa outlines a new pricing framework as inflation eases to 4.3% in July, but fuel and food remain key risks for household costs. Kenya Energy Jobs: Kenya’s energy sector is in CEO scramble across KenGen, Nock, GDC, Epra and Ketraco, reflecting turnover amid major generation and supply projects. Solar Buildout: South Africa’s Eskom backtracks on proposed solar registration fines, easing pressure on rooftop and solar market players. Oil & Gas Legal/Policy: South Africa’s top court permanently blocks Shell’s Wild Coast offshore exploration, reshaping future upstream activity and climate-justice debates.

Nuclear Power Push (Kenya): Kenya’s Senate Energy Committee backed a proposed nuclear plant in Bondo, but demanded strict safeguards on land compensation, public participation and safety, including nuclear waste discussions. Fuel Price Shock (Nigeria): Nigerian petrol marketers in Lagos, Warri and Calabar reportedly raised pump prices after US President Trump labelled the Strait of Hormuz as “new U.S. territory,” stoking supply-risk fears. Gas Testing Update (Namibia): ReconAfrica shipped additional equipment for the Kavango West 1X well, preparing for a planned horizontal test after gas and potential liquids flowed to surface from the Huttenberg formation. Cement Probe (Nigeria): Nigeria’s FCCPC opened further investigation into high cement prices, citing possible price manipulation despite large installed capacity and cross-border findings of excess supply. Electric Mobility (Kenya): TVS launched its iQube electric scooter in Kenya via Car & General, betting on faster growth in electric two-wheelers as fuel and maintenance costs rise. Power Tariffs Overhaul (South Africa): South Africa’s electricity pricing policy is under public input, with officials aiming to cut “hidden costs” and address Eskom and municipal debt pressures.

Upstream Push: Equinor is buying a 17.4% stake in Chevron’s Orange Basin exploration licence 90 in Namibia, joining a crowded hunt that includes TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, Shell, BP and Eni as drilling ramps up after earlier dry holes. Legal Shock to Oil Plans: South Africa’s Constitutional Court permanently blocked Shell’s Wild Coast offshore exploration, citing flawed decision-making and inadequate community consultation plus environmental and climate concerns. Power & Solar Policy: South Africa’s small-scale solar push got a boost after Eskom said it will not fine or disconnect unregistered residential embedded solar systems by Sept 30, easing fears that could slow uptake. Market Watch (Cement): Nigeria’s FCCPC says cement prices may be manipulated despite excess capacity, launching summonses and comparing Nigeria’s retail rates with Kenya, Tanzania and others. Refining Finance: Dangote Petroleum Refinery completed a $1bn underwriting programme ahead of its planned IPO, combining a funded $600m private placement with a $400m underwriting commitment. Regional Trade: DRC moved to first place in AGOA/GSP import supplier rankings for Jan–Jun 2026, signaling stronger export momentum into the US.