AGP Executive Report

Angola Oil: Afentra has moved its Impala-2 well ahead of a planned sidetrack, targeting first oil in January 2027 and about 4,000 barrels per day of initial gross output. Solar and Storage: Jinguan Electric has secured an EPC framework worth up to $296 million for 50 solar, storage and charging stations across African markets where Spiro operates, including Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria. Fuel Costs: Rising oil prices are intensifying pressure on households, with South Africa’s Automobile Association urging the government to cut fuel taxes by curbing wasteful spending. Investment and Power: African Energy Week opened in Cape Town with 10,000 attendees, while South Africa advances plans to procure 4.6GW of battery storage alongside gas-fired power. Refining: Kenya’s proposed $16 billion Dangote refinery faces opposition from a presidential aspirant, adding political uncertainty to a project billed as a regional refining hub.

Nigeria’s Refining Push: Crude supply constraints are limiting feedstock for the Dangote refinery, exposing the gap between oil production and domestic processing. A proposed $16bn refinery in Kenya also faces political opposition from a presidential aspirant who says local investors should lead the project. Power Investment: South Africa’s 9.6GW expansion plan puts gas and battery storage at the forefront, including 4.6GW of planned batteries, as the country’s fuel production falls and import reliance grows. Cape Town’s new R220m hybrid plant is expected to save residents R400m in electricity costs. Renewables and Skills: Zambia’s Axian and Africa GreenCo signed a 240MW solar power purchase agreement, while Nigeria’s NCDMB and Renaissance launched a 12-month programme to train 60 people in oil and gas technical skills. Shell says investment will depend on clear rules and faster project execution.

Nigeria’s Fuel Squeeze: Dangote Refinery raised diesel to ₦1,800 a litre as officials acknowledged limited domestic crude supplies are forcing the refinery to import. The government’s 30-day petrol discount offers temporary relief, but its reach and durability remain in question. Power Expansion: Lagos aims to lift electricity supply from below 1,000MW to more than 3,000MW by March 2027, using grid power, independent projects and embedded generation. South Africa’s Energy Mix: The country is advancing plans for 9.6GW of battery storage and gas-fired power, while Eskom begins selecting renewable-energy partners. Solar Investment: Zambia’s GreenCo and Axian signed a power purchase agreement for a 240MW solar project, adding momentum to the region’s renewable pipeline. Africa’s Energy Value: A UN report says the continent earns less than 1% of the value generated by green-energy supply chains despite its major cobalt resources, renewing calls for more local processing.

Fuel Costs: Dangote Refinery raised diesel to ₦1,800 a litre, while UNCTAD says Nigeria recorded the world’s steepest diesel price increase—82.7% from February to August—adding pressure on businesses and households. Regional Power: The AfDB is backing eastern and western African power pools, as Benin secured a €15 million German pledge for solar energy and small businesses. Energy Investment: African energy firms are set to discuss exploration and investment plans at a South Africa industry gathering, while Nigeria’s production rebound is drawing attention to the security gains behind higher output. Clean-Energy Value Chains: A UN report warns Africa captures less than 1% of green-energy supply-chain value despite producing much of the world’s cobalt. South Africa’s Grid: The country is advancing plans for 4.6GW of battery storage and more gas-fired power, even as households face high electricity costs.

Fuel Costs: Nigerian depot petrol prices climbed to N1,900 a litre despite NNPC’s temporary discount, renewing questions over how to provide lasting relief. South Africa’s Power Mix: The country is moving ahead with procurement of 4.6GW of battery storage and plans to expand gas-fired power, even as spare grid capacity remains too costly for some households to access. Solar Investment: Germany pledged €15 million for Benin, including support for a solar component at the Nangbéto hydropower plant. In Zambia, Axian and Africa GreenCo signed a power-purchase agreement for a 240MW solar project, as the country reports reaching its 1,000MW solar target. Regional Energy Risks: Escalating Houthi-Saudi conflict near Bab el-Mandeb could further raise shipping and fuel costs for African economies already facing expensive energy imports.

Solar Investment: Axian and Africa GreenCo signed a 240MW solar power-purchase agreement in Zambia, while Enugu secured $200 million for a 100MW solar project. South Africa’s Power Mix: The government’s 9.6GW expansion plan puts 4.6GW of battery storage and gas-fired power at the forefront. A new procurement determination clears the way for large-scale storage and gas-to-power, as Eskom starts selecting renewable-energy partners. Local Projects: Cape Town launched a R220 million hybrid power plant in Atlantis; a University of Johannesburg study says rooftop solar could cut businesses’ grid use by up to 97%. Oil and Gas: Ghana’s Jubilee and Eni partners announced $3.5 billion in sector investments, alongside a Shell-Chevron exploration agreement. Nigeria opened a licensing round for 40 oil and gas blocks, as President Bola Tinubu said reforms could unlock $50 billion in deepwater investment.

Power Shift: Cape Town has opened its R220-million Helderhoop solar-and-battery plant, which the city says could save residents R400 million over 20 years. Fuel Prices: Nigeria is negotiating a N1,350-per-litre ceiling on petrol’s ex-gantry cost and offering a 30-day NNPC discount to cushion the oil-price shock. Oil & Gas: Shell and Chevron signed an exploration deal for Ghana’s Eastern Keta Basin, as Jubilee and ENI partners announced $3.5 billion in sector investments. Nigeria has also put 40 oil blocks up for bidding. New Capacity: South Africa plans 9.6GW of gas-fired power and battery storage, including 4.6GW of batteries, as it addresses the challenge of securing dependable supply despite a power surplus. Project Finance: The Africa Energy Bank’s launch has slipped again, now targeted for November, renewing questions about funding for the continent’s oil and gas projects. Solar: Zambia says it has reached its 1,000MW solar target.

Fuel Prices: Nigeria will offer a 30-day petrol discount at NNPC stations, prioritising public transport, as prices climb to about N1,400 a litre. The government says it wants to ease the shock without restoring fuel subsidies. Power Investment: South Africa plans a 9.6GW expansion led by gas-fired generation and battery storage, with procurement focused on 4.6GW of batteries. Gas Infrastructure: Morocco’s OCP subsidiary JESA is helping prepare Senegal’s planned 400km gas network to link offshore supplies with power plants and industry. Oil and Gas: Nigeria has opened a licensing round for 40 oil and gas blocks, while Morocco has partnered with Viridien to develop exploration data and attract investors. Renewables: Zambia says it has reached its 1,000MW solar target, adding momentum to the continent’s push to turn abundant sunshine into reliable power. Regional Cooperation: Egypt and South Korea have agreed to advance a hydrogen-powered tram initiative as part of broader energy cooperation.

South Africa’s Power Shift: The government is prioritising batteries and gas in a 9.6GW procurement push, even as national supply improves while many households still lack reliable electricity. D3 Energy’s gas project also gained Strategic Integrated Project status, strengthening its position in the country’s infrastructure plans. Refining and Oil: Kenya selected Honeywell and Engineers India for a proposed $16 billion refinery, while Nigeria opened a licensing round offering 40 oil blocks and reported output of 1.82 million barrels a day. Regional Grids: A new partnership involving FIS-RDC, EnPower, Trafigura and Gridworks aims to build a power interconnector serving the DRC’s copperbelt. Fuel Costs: South Africa’s latest record price increases are adding pressure on freight, supply chains and consumers.

Zambia’s Solar Surge: Installed power capacity has climbed to 4,722 MW, with solar reaching 1,027.5 MW—already above the country’s 2026 target. Officials say transmission and distribution investment must catch up. South Africa’s Grid Pivot: With surplus electricity at some times, the government is prioritising battery storage and gas-to-power to stabilise the grid and make better use of supply. Nigeria’s Oil Push: The regulator has opened a licensing round offering 40 oil blocks as production rises; President Tinubu says reforms could unlock $50 billion in deepwater investment. Refining Across East Africa: Kenya and Uganda have approved local investors’ participation in Dangote Refinery’s IPO, part of the company’s regional expansion plans. Solar Growth: Africa is projected to install a record 17 GW of solar this year, while Nigeria has launched a $300 million fund for distributed renewable power. Fuel Pressure: South African petrol has topped R30 a litre as higher global oil prices add to household and transport costs.

Nigeria Industrial Push: President Tinubu told manufacturers Nigeria will stop being Africa’s “warehouse” and become the continent’s “industrial workshop,” as he flags financing and operating costs still weighing on output. East Africa Refining Boost: Afreximbank says Dangote’s 700,000 bpd Lamu refinery will conserve Kenya’s foreign exchange and cut exposure to distant supply chains. Kenya Manufacturing Cost Pressure: Unilever invested Sh70m in an 800kW solar system in Nairobi, aiming to cover about 30% of power needs and cut energy costs, while switching boilers from HFO to biomass. South Africa Fuel Shock: Petrol and diesel prices rose again, with renewed calls for fuel-levy relief as households feel the squeeze. Nigeria Upstream Capital Drive: NUPRC opened the 2026 licensing round with 40 oil blocks as output hit 1.82mbpd, seeking fresh investment. Solar Data Gap: A new analysis argues Africa’s solar boom is bigger than official stats, driven by distributed systems. Regional Macro Outlook: The World Bank lifted Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% but warned job creation and poverty reduction lag.

Renewables & Industry: Unilever says it has commissioned an 800kW solar system at its Nairobi factory, expected to supply ~30% of electricity and cut annual energy costs by about Sh30m, alongside a shift from heavy fuel oil to biomass that helped cut emissions ~40% versus 2023. Oil & Gas Resilience: At an Energy Intelligence Forum, TotalEnergies, Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum stressed “just-in-case” planning as US-Iran tensions disrupt routes, citing redundancy in pipelines and the value of owned tanker fleets. Shipping Costs: Crude tanker rates keep climbing, with the Saudi Arabia–China VLCC benchmark hitting a new all-time high of $1.33m/day as the Hormuz “works” effect cascades into other routes. Power Access Reform: South Africa’s electricity minister says only 1.7m of 2.8m indigent households received free basic electricity, prompting smart-meter rollout, front-loaded allocations and possible direct transfers to Eskom for administration. East Africa Oil Oversight: Uganda’s MPs toured EACOP and other petroleum projects in Uganda and Tanzania, with EACOP reported at ~92% completion ahead of first oil. Solar Investment: Orb Energy secured $2m from KawiSafi Ventures to expand commercial and industrial solar across East Africa, starting with Kenya. Regional Power Trade: Ghana’s Volta River Authority urged continued electricity supply to Togo and Benin despite domestic shortages, warning against “selfish” export cutbacks. Nigeria Upstream Transparency: Nigeria’s VP Shettima said an oil block was awarded to a “friend” with no political connections through open bidding, as Tinubu also flagged reduced crude revenue dependence. Energy Diplomacy: Algeria’s APPO chief highlighted Algerian hydrocarbon expertise and training as a conduit for African energy cooperation at NAPEC.

Helium Prospecting in South Africa: D3 Energy says remedial cementing restored gas flow at its NGT245 E well in the Free State, confirming 5.2% helium in samples (with methane at 49.7%, to be retested). Fuel Price Shock in South Africa: Petrol prices are set to breach R30/l from Wednesday, with 93-octane up to R29.88 and 95-octane to R30.25 inland; diesel also rises, prompting fresh calls for fuel levy cuts. Illicit Diesel Concern: South Africa’s Fuels Industry Association warns “illicit” diesel may include up to 600 million litres of paraffin blended into the diesel pool. Regional Power Stability: Eskom reports load reduction easing in Gauteng, with outages continuing in selected areas and a phased plan to end load reduction by 2027. East Africa Refinery Push: Kenya’s Ruto met South Sudan’s Kiir, highlighting the Dangote East Africa Refinery in Lamu as a regional trade and energy catalyst. UAE Investment Signals: UNCTAD data shows UAE outward FDI hit $63.353bn in 2025, spanning energy, ports and logistics.

Fuel Price Shock (South Africa): South Africans brace for petrol above R30 a litre from Wednesday as DMPR links the jump to US–Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz supply uncertainty, higher shipping costs and lower inventories; 95 unleaded is set to rise by about R3.33 to ~R30.25 inland, with diesel climbing to record levels, raising fears of queues and renewed panic buying. Regional Trade & Infrastructure (Zambia/DRC/Angola): President Hichilema and Finance Minister Musokotwane push the Lobito Corridor as an AfCFTA accelerator, aiming to turn it into an export-led industrial corridor that boosts jobs, productivity and FDI. Energy Investment & Exploration (Egypt): EGAS and Chevron sign an $88m deal for Mediterranean Lotus block exploration, including two wells and 3D seismic reprocessing. Local Energy Logistics (Angola): CABSHIP founder João Filipe wins African Energy Week’s lifetime achievement award for building Angola’s indigenous logistics and offshore support capacity. Social Sector PPPs (Africa): ECA, AfDB and ALSF call for better PPP project preparation and new financing models so governments can expand affordable education, health, housing, water and energy without unsustainable costs. Distributed Solar (Kenya): Businesses add 72.8MW of captive solar for own use, lifting self-generation to 676.6MW as firms seek reliable power and lower bills.

Geopolitics & Energy: A new wave of “economic statecraft” is reshaping global energy and trade, with wars, AI, and financing pressures increasingly tied to commodity flows and investment decisions that affect Africa’s resources and markets. Hydrogen Corridor: Algeria’s acting industry minister Slah Zouari says the SouthH2 Southern Hydrogen Corridor is moving to connect North Africa with Europe, with more studies due before a final project version. Downstream Modernisation: SOCAR Downstream has been picked as project management consultant for Congo’s CORAF refinery modernisation, supporting pre-FEED work and deepening Azerbaijan–Congo energy cooperation. Fuel Security & Illicit Trade: South Africa faces a sharp fuel-cost squeeze as petrol is set to break R30/litre, while FIASA warns illegal diesel blending with illuminating paraffin could hit up to 800m litres a year, costing billions in tax losses. Power & Industry Reliability: Kenya’s push for reliable green power highlights geothermal’s role in steady baseload supply for industrial growth and cleaner production credentials. Energy Deals Platform: African Energy Week and Premier Invest’s “deal room” focus on moving projects from opportunity to execution as Africa seeks investment to scale oil, gas, and renewables. Regional Trade Corridors: Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam Port transit cargo rose 17% in 2025/26, reinforcing East Africa’s role in feeding Central and Southern Africa’s mineral-linked demand.

Youth & Energy Mindset: Nigeria’s Nasir Giwa Mentorship urged young people to swap social-media arguments for skills, collaboration and solution-driven ventures, echoing a broader push for energy-linked job creation. Energy Security Push (Namibia): A Namibia energy conference called for stronger energy security and affordability, stressing that resource development must be backed by geopolitical stability. Red Sea & Nile Politics (Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia): The Alamein Joint Declaration sets a unified stance on Red Sea governance and rejects unilateral Nile actions, while Egypt’s PM says Cairo wants a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute. Nile Diplomacy (Senegal): Senegal’s president backed Egypt’s approach to managing shared waters via consultation and “avoid harm” principles. Nigeria Gas Revenue Scrutiny: SERAP urged President Tinubu to investigate alleged ₦94.4bn in unremitted or unaccounted petroleum funds tied to the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund and NUPRC. Fuel Subsidy Fight (Nigeria): Omoyele Sowore vowed to reverse fuel subsidy removal on day one in 2027, calling it a scam. East Africa Refinery Watch (Kenya): Kenya’s Thirdway Alliance demanded full disclosure of the Dangote Lamu refinery contract, while Uganda’s Museveni backed more refineries but said Uganda won’t commit money until Tanzania’s Tanga status is clear. Oil Market Signals: OPEC+ kept November oil output targets unchanged, extending a pause in quota changes.