AGP Executive Report

Uganda Oil Pipeline Nears First Oil: After more than a decade of delays, Uganda’s 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline is at about 80–84% completion, with commissioning targeted for July 2026 and first exports by October. The electrically heated 24-inch line (up to 246,000 bpd) will move Albertine Graben crude to Tanzania’s Tanga port, with TotalEnergies as majority stakeholder alongside Uganda National Oil Company, TPDC and CNOOC. Nigeria Power Access Push: Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency has started rolling out 48 interconnected solar mini-grids under World Bank’s DARES and AfDB-backed NEP, aiming for 250,000+ connections for about 1.25 million people and better grid stability. Oil Price Risk Premium: Eni warns Middle East conflict could push Brent toward $100/bbl by early 2027, as inventories fall and strategic reserves get depleted—raising inflation risks. Mining Rights Under Scrutiny: A Transition Mineral Tracker flags rising allegations of abuse tied to clean-energy minerals, calling for stronger rules and community benefits. South Sudan Revenue Drive: Authorities urge urgent rehabilitation of the Juba–Nimule highway to speed cargo and boost tax collection.

East Africa Power Trade: Ethiopia and Kenya signed a new electricity supply deal, with EEU selling power to Kenya Power at about 24.07 birr per kWh, aiming to deepen cross-border energy connectivity and reliability. Uganda Oil Pipeline Milestone: Uganda’s 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline is about 80–84% complete, targeting July 2026 commissioning and October first exports, using electrically heated lines to move up to 246,000 bpd of waxy crude. South Africa Mining Renewables: Siyanda Bakgatla Platinum Mine signed with NOA for 288 GWh a year via wind/solar plus battery storage delivered through wheeled energy solutions. Nigeria Power Cost Pressure: A look at how Nigerian businesses keep operating despite soaring electricity costs and unreliable grid supply, pushing more firms toward alternatives. Energy Risk Tools: South Africa’s Florion launched to help firms manage the new, more complex energy contracting and risk landscape. EV Demand Push: A Chinese auto executive urged African governments to back private-sector-led EV fleets and charging buildout to kickstart local EV value chains. Clean Cooking Finance: UN-backed clean cooking commitments add another $900m push for faster household fuel switching. Oil Market Shockwatch: IEA data points to weaker global gas demand in 2026, with India’s LNG demand forecast to fall as Middle East disruptions reshape supply.

East Africa Oil Pipeline: Uganda’s 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline is nearing completion at about 80–84%, with officials targeting commissioning in July 2026 and first exports by October, using electrical trace heating to keep waxy crude flowing; TotalEnergies leads with partners including Uganda National Oil Company, Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp and CNOOC. Middle East Energy Shockwatch: Renewed US-Iran tensions are again rattling oil and shipping flows, with analysts warning of supply-chain strain and fresh volatility risks for African energy costs. South Africa Power Relief Pressure: South African industry is pushing for extended electricity price relief, with Isuzu arguing high power costs are squeezing steel and undermining downstream automotive competitiveness. EV Finance Push: Absa and BYD expanded their partnership with a new finance product for electric vehicles, including promos like reduced rates for early customers, as EV sales surge. Renewables for Airports: Cape Town International Airport is advancing an on-site solar farm aimed at green accreditation, adding to broader airport decarbonisation plans. Clean Cooking Funding: UNDP and TAILG signed an MOU for a green, low-carbon mobility project, reinforcing Africa’s wider push to cut emissions and energy pollution.

Uganda Oil Pipeline Push: The East African Crude Oil Pipeline is nearing completion at about 80–84%, with line pipes delivered and pump stations, plus the marine terminal and jetty, over 88% done. Built to move up to 246,000 bpd of waxy crude from Uganda’s Albertine Graben to Tanzania’s Tanga port, it uses electric trace heating to keep crude flowing. Officials target commissioning in July 2026 and first exports by October, with TotalEnergies as majority stakeholder alongside Uganda National Oil Company, Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp and CNOOC. Nigeria ESG Reporting: Nigeria’s SEC says mandatory sustainability reporting for large public interest entities will start with voluntary adoption, then become compulsory from 2027 (wider rollout to other public entities in 2028 and SMEs by 2030), aligning disclosures with ISSB standards. Clean Trade Momentum (South Africa–EU): The EU highlights the first senior government-to-government dialogue under its Clean Trade and Investment Partnership with South Africa, focusing on green hydrogen, grid expansion, critical raw materials and regulatory cooperation. Kenya Refinery Bet: Aliko Dangote confirms a $17bn, 700,000 bpd Lamu refinery, positioning Kenya to cut fuel imports and boost Lamu’s economy. Ebola Facility Controversy (Kenya): Kenya’s court blocked a US plan for an Ebola quarantine facility, citing concerns over clarity and local health risks, even as the US committed about KSh1.7bn to the response.

Power & Grid Reliability: Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency says it’s pushing interconnected mini-grids, targeting 288MW of new capacity via 48 projects to improve supply reliability where distribution is weak. Hydrogen Watch: AFRENTRA’s CEO warns Nigeria could miss the hydrogen boom unless it accelerates green hydrogen investment, arguing gas demand will crowd out blue hydrogen options. Oil & Gas Delivery: Uganda’s East African Crude Oil Pipeline is nearing completion at about 80–84%, with commissioning targeted for July 2026 and first exports in October, aiming to move up to 246,000 bpd. Cyber Risk: Check Point reports cyber attacks in Africa remain high, with energy and utilities among the most targeted sectors and ransomware activity rising. Renewables & Projects: ENGIE-backed Egypt’s 900MW Gulf of Suez onshore wind farm is progressing toward phased commissioning, with first 300MW due December 2027. EV Financing: EV Automobiles and ReTrust Microfinance Bank in Nigeria are teaming up to make electric vehicle ownership more affordable through consumer credit plus charging and energy support. Regional Integration: Ethiopia assumes Eastern Africa Power Pool chairmanship, pledging faster energy integration. Industrial Policy: South Africa’s TASEZ automotive special economic zone is highlighted as a model for coordinated industrial support, citing billions in investment and thousands of jobs.

East Africa Oil & Gas Infrastructure: Uganda’s 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline is about 80–84% complete, with commissioning targeted for July 2026 and first exports by October, using electric trace heating to keep waxy crude flowing; TotalEnergies leads with partners including UNOC, TPDC and CNOOC. West Africa Power & Storage: Aliko Dangote pledges US$2bn for The Gambia—covering a 250MW solar plant and a modern fuel tank farm to boost storage and supply security. Regional Power Integration: Ethiopia says it will keep pushing Eastern Africa Power Pool market integration, stressing constitutional governance and rule of law as EAPP reviews power-market issues in Addis Ababa. Sahel Energy Cooperation: Burkina Faso and Russia agree to convene their first intergovernmental commission session, with energy and mining among priority cooperation areas. Middle East Oil Shock Spillover: Iran–US tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks keep oil markets jumpy, while some countries accelerate solar and EV adoption to cut dependence on imported oil and gas. Nuclear Fuel Value-Add: Namibia seeks deeper uranium processing at home in talks with China’s CGN, aiming for technology transfer and a downstream fuel chain beyond concentrate exports. Ghana Clean Energy & Trade Push: Ghana Investment and Trade Week highlights Chinese interest in energy-saving building systems and renewable-linked projects.

LNG Trade Surge: Nigeria lifted LNG exports to 14.78m tonnes in 2025, keeping it Africa’s top supplier as global LNG trade hit a record 436.98m tonnes. Gas Market Stress: A fresh look at the global gas market warns it’s one shock away from a damaging crisis as LNG flows and storage levels remain tight. South Africa Power Push: Ghana unveiled a 1.5GW solar-hydropower plan with battery storage for its 24-Hour Economy, aiming to cut industrial tariffs. Retail & Mobility: Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc says South Africa isn’t ready for big public fast-charging hubs yet, even as it moves to expand via its Shell downstream deal. Oil & Gas Deals: Adnoc Distribution plans further expansion after buying Shell’s South Africa downstream business for $1bn, while Nigeria’s NNPC and partners signed landmark gas agreements at NOG Energy Week. Project Finance & Execution: Savca data shows South Africa’s private equity is increasingly backing infrastructure and energy, but deal momentum still faces execution gaps. Litigation Watch: Ugandan farmers filed a UK court challenge to stop EACOP, arguing the pipeline breaches Ugandan protections. West Africa Gas Buildout: MSGBC 2026 in Dakar will spotlight LNG infrastructure and regional gas monetization, including Senegal’s GTA–Gandon pipeline approvals.

Gas & LNG Dealmaking: UTM Offshore signed a 15-year gas supply agreement for its $3bn Nigeria FLNG, locking in 200 mmscfd (5.7m m³/day) via a JV involving NNPC and Seplat, clearing a key hurdle toward final investment. Gas-to-Industry Push: NNPC Ltd signed six strategic gas agreements to boost industrialisation and energy security, including deals tied to Ajaokuta Steel, UTM FLNG, Chevron Nigeria and other network entry arrangements. Oil Sector Reform Watch: Nigeria’s petroleum ministry says reforms are restoring investor confidence as crude output rises to 1.8m bpd, with the government pointing to more rigs and improved regulatory certainty. Refining & Finance: Dangote’s planned 700,000 bpd Kenya refinery is framed as a major East Africa fuel supply shift, with financing discussed via equity/bond routes and an IPO plan. Power Reliability Pressure: A Nigeria electricity crisis report says firms are spending heavily on diesel, gas and alternatives, underscoring how weak grid supply is raising operating costs. Renewables Execution: South Africa’s regulator approved generation licences for multiple solar PV projects, while other coverage highlights grid constraints and tariff pressure. Blue Economy Governance: Activists warn that “blue economy” growth around offshore wind and marine protection must include coastal communities in decisions, financing and governance. Energy Policy Finance: Kenya’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Bill sets up stabilisation, strategic investment and a future generations arm funded by 30% of petroleum and mineral revenues.

Industrialisation Push: Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu told Afreximbank to mobilise Africa’s human, financial and natural resources to make industrialisation practical, not theoretical, as reforms like ending fuel subsidy and tackling multiple exchange rates aim to cut corruption and boost investment. Tax Burden Relief: Nigeria’s petroleum minister says government will soon resolve Nigeria’s “270 taxes, levies and regulatory charges” by benchmarking fiscal charges with peers, using PwC and NUPRC, to reduce bottlenecks and attract new oil and gas investment. Cost-Cutting at NNPC: NNPC says it cut operating costs by $3.4bn via contract restructuring while reporting higher crude and gas output and improved export terminal efficiency. Oil Output Rebound: Nigeria’s crude production is back above 1.8mbpd (with condensates), framed as the result of removing upstream bottlenecks. South Africa Fuel Retail Deal: Shell’s South Africa fuel-station network is set to be sold to UAE’s Adnoc Distribution in a $1bn cash deal, with claims it will be “cash accretive from day one.” Solar Expansion: Grene Capital boosted Jabi Lake Mall’s solar capacity to 1.5MWp, partnering with Elektron Renewables to improve resilience. Mining Risk Focus: Nigeria’s mining sector gets a push to reduce investor risk through better geological data, clearer roles and regulatory certainty. East Africa Refining: Dangote begins preliminary works on a $17bn, 700,000-bpd Kenya refinery at Lamu, targeting reduced fuel imports across the region.

Shell Exit, ADNOC Entry: Shell agreed to sell its South Africa downstream business, including about 580 fuel stations, to ADNOC in a ~$1bn deal, with completion targeted for 2027 after regulatory approvals. Uganda–EACOP Legal Push: Ugandan farmers filed a UK High Court lawsuit to stop the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), arguing environmental and human impacts and seeking to apply local protections to the UK-incorporated project operator. Dangote Refinery in Kenya: Dangote plans to finance a 700,000 bpd refinery on Lamu Island via internal funds, bonds and a planned IPO, aiming to cut East Africa’s dependence on imported refined products. Gas Demand Watch: The IEA forecast global gas demand to contract in 2026, citing tighter supply and still-elevated prices after Middle East disruptions. Power for Industry: NNPC’s CEO Bashir Ojulari urged stronger global and continental partnerships to overcome institutional fragmentation and unlock investment as Nigeria pushes oil, gas and energy infrastructure. Grid Stress in Real Estate: A new report says energy reliability and availability are increasingly shaping where firms locate and how buildings perform, especially as grid capacity tightens. Kenya Carbon Economy: A Kenya carbon-credits debate is intensifying over who owns stored carbon on communal land and who benefits from sales. Cape Town Electric Mobility: Cape Town received its first locally built MyCiTi electric bus for route testing ahead of wider rollout.

LNG Deal: ADnoc has signed a 15-year agreement with Japan’s Inpex to supply 1 mtpa of LNG from the Ruwais project, with the pact announced during Dr Sultan Al Jaber’s Japan visit. Oil & Refining: Dangote says it will build a 700,000 bpd refinery in Kenya, aiming to expand East Africa’s fuel supply and boost its overall refining capacity. Nigeria Finance for Energy: ProvidusUnity and Regions Bank hosted a roundtable to tackle Nigeria’s estimated $25bn annual oil-and-gas financing gap, focusing on trade facilitation and project funding. Power Sector Cost Pressure: Nigeria’s grid underutilisation cost the country over N2.376tn in capacity payments over 12 years, according to NISO, as the system struggles to turn available generation into economic value. Clean Energy Access: Nigeria’s stakeholders pushed for an inclusive energy transition that links renewables and critical minerals to jobs and diversification. Grid & Renewables in SA: South Africa’s rooftop solar push continues, with capacity surpassing 8.3 GW as the market shifts. Climate Risk: El Niño strengthening is expected to drive more extreme heat, raising pressure on energy demand and resilience planning across regions.

Pipeline Progress: East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) has crossed the 90% completion mark, moving Uganda closer to exporting crude from Hoima to Tanzania’s Tanga port as the project shifts toward commissioning and final facilities. Power Market Policy: South Africa’s Eskom is removing over one million customers from load reduction schedules, while regulators and industry groups push for timely electricity market rules to unlock investment and competition. Fuel Cost Pressure: South African fuel prices remain elevated despite recent easing, with government levy relief being reinstated in stages and a slate levy deficit expected to keep the squeeze going for months. Renewables & Access: Nigeria’s renewable energy push gets a boost as All On marks 10 years of energy access work in Lagos, bringing together government, financiers and developers to set the next decade’s agenda. Carbon Markets: Ghana advances its carbon credit framework via its Carbon Market Office, aiming to turn emissions cuts into a development tool across energy, agriculture and transport. Regional Energy Links: West African energy leaders plan a Scotland trip to secure offshore oil, renewables and carbon capture partnerships, while Oil & Gas Governance: Nigeria’s entry into the IEA as an associate member signals deeper global energy engagement.

Clean Cooking Push: Lagos pilots an 80m clean cookstoves programme, cutting firewood use by 85% in Makoko and aiming to unlock climate carbon finance at scale. Grid Reality Check: A South Africa-focused debate flags “grid capacity” as the real bottleneck for power and investment, as tariff pressure and reliability concerns keep households squeezed. Solar Resilience in Conflict Zones: Syria’s solar boom is filling a power gap left by a damaged grid, with off-grid capacity rising fast and a growing share of households turning to panels. Oil & Gas Security Shock: India expands domestic crude exploration after the Middle East war disrupted supply routes, with new border-belt exploration plans aimed at boosting output. Nigeria Energy Finance: Nigeria’s World Bank loan approvals hit $11.4bn in three years under Tinubu, but disbursement remains low, raising execution risk. IEA Membership: Nigeria’s admission to the International Energy Agency is framed as a governance and energy-planning upgrade. Auto Localisation vs Jobs: South Africa’s stalled vehicle localisation rate is under scrutiny, while Chery’s Rosslyn takeover signals manufacturing jobs—yet localisation commitments remain policy-dependent. Regional Energy/Industry Deals: Dangote’s East Africa refinery plans keep resurfacing, with Uganda discussing participation and value-add goals.

Power Debt Watch: Nigeria’s electricity export bill is piling up, with Benin, Togo and Niger owing about N17.45bn ($12.66m) after remitting just 27.57% of Q1 2026 invoices, underscoring cashflow strain in the power sector. Clean Energy Access: Nigeria’s federal government kicked off phase two of its TVET programme to boost youth employability with industry-relevant skills and stipends, while a separate push on clean cooking and mini-grids aims to widen rural power access. Grid & Tariff Pressure: South Africa faces renewed electricity pain as rising prices worsen for users, with tariff hikes and policy uncertainty continuing to weigh on demand and investment. Climate Risk for Food & Power: UN agencies warn a strengthening El Niño could bring droughts, floods and severe storms, raising the odds of another food shock that can ripple into energy and power planning. Nature-Based Value: A study finds mangroves remove about 870,000 tonnes of nitrogen pollution yearly, valued at $8.7bn—another reminder that ecosystem services can support coastal resilience. SOE Reform: South Africa’s cabinet is advancing reforms to make state firms “fit for purpose,” including a National State Enterprise Bill to standardise governance and accountability across utilities and other parastatals. Energy Transition Finance: Western climate finance is shrinking, leaving a gap that could push more Global South projects toward alternative funding models.

Mini-grids in focus: Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency says mini-grids are now a commercially viable model that can de-risk the power sector and pull in private capital, shifting attention from subsidies to verified demand and steadier cashflows. Power project contracting: Altera Infrastructure won a major EPCIC deal for Eni’s Ivory Coast Baleine Phase 3 FPSO, targeting 90,000 bpd oil and 160m cfd gas handling, with delivery expected around mid-2029 as Eni fast-tracks. LNG demand outlook: Shell forecasts global LNG demand rising to nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, with Middle East and Africa set to increase consumption—if import infrastructure keeps up. Energy security & prices: Ukraine’s strike on a St Petersburg refinery is being linked to Russia’s admitted fuel shortages, raising the risk of tighter supply and higher costs for buyers reliant on discounted crude. Nigeria market watch: Capital markets link Nigeria’s Q2 equities slide to investors raising cash ahead of the anticipated Dangote Refinery IPO. Clean energy funding: A World Bank-backed push highlights Morocco’s $265m clean energy financing aimed at reliable, affordable electricity.

Automotive Jobs & Localisation: Chery has officially taken over Nissan’s former Rosslyn plant in South Africa, inaugurating the revitalised facility with promises to retain 692 workers and create nearly 3,000 jobs, while positioning Rosslyn as a regional HQ for manufacturing, exports, R&D and training. Policy Pushback: South Africa’s Motor Industry Staff Association says foreign auto investment must translate into protected component jobs and skills for new energy vehicles, urging stronger local manufacturing pillars in the Automotive Master Plan. Power & Industry Finance: A Nigeria-focused rural electrification piece argues the real bottleneck is building an investor-trustworthy market, not just adding generation—highlighting how businesses still spend heavily on diesel power due to grid reliability and sector liquidity issues. Clean Cooking & Youth: An Africa Energy Forum discussion spotlights clean cooking as a youth-led opportunity, noting nearly one billion Africans still rely on firewood/charcoal and that cleaner options like LPG, electric cooking and improved cookstoves can drive health, gender and economic gains. Energy Governance: Nigeria’s move to join the International Energy Agency as an associate member is framed as a step toward stronger global energy governance and leadership value.